Dearest friends and family

With all the trouble in Egypt and the fact that we live on the border, we felt we should send out a letter telling you all how we see it from our perspective and what we think the future might hold.

Like most unusual political activities within the Arab world they are both unpredictable and inevitable. The flare up has been anticipated for some years already. The influence of the Islamic Brotherhood has been much the same as the rise of the Nazi party in the 1930’s. Egypt has almost no middle class and most of its population live in extreme poverty. The average annual income for an Egyptian is $1500 a year – that equates to a little over $4 a day. Like the Nazis the Islamic Brotherhood are preying on the poor and under-educated promising them the earth should they follow them. I expect that the same would happen to the Egyptians that happened to the Germans.

I have not given up on president Mubarak (his name means ‘blessed’) – he may be old but he is certainly not down and out. He still has full control of the army and has cancelled his sons automatic inheritance in the Egyptian presidency. He has however called upon close allies to replace his son as his successor. There will probably be a very rigged election and the man that succeeds him will be the man that Mubarak feels suited to carry on the dynasty.

What does this bode for Israel? Quite a lot. Egypt and Israel are very big trading partners so it is in Israel’s interest that the existing governmental form remains. Israel has diplomatic relations with Egypt, although our diplomats have been recalled essentially for briefing, I feel it may well be an extended time of briefing! Our border with Egypt is unconventionally secure. The status quo has seen 10 years of a terrorist free Sinai in the area of the Israeli border. Our border is patrolled by the Egyptian police on their side. These policemen have all been called to Cairo to help with the unrest and the Egyptian army is reportedly filling the gap. This too has an interesting side. As I am sure the Egyptians value the peace and the trade links with Israel we would see a potential Egyptian military buildup in a positive rather than a negative light. This all is well and good providing that the current government remains in power!

Should the Islamic Brotherhood manage to take power the implications for Israel would be immediate. The calm and organized security that runs deep through the Northern Sinai would end immediately. The buffer zone that the Sinai Peninsula has been between mainland Egypt and Israel would disappear and our sworn enemies would be on our doorstep. I would be able to see them from my house!

We hope that the situation will be like a winter storm in the Negev and blow out and be forgotten within a day or two! Our personal situation is secure and we continue to listen to news updates and get snippets of news from Egypt. As their internet is intermittent and in most places down, it is difficult to get any accurate news at all except from Al Jazeera. Now who trusts the reliability of Al Jazeera? We will continue to monitor the situation from the fence – literally and keep giving you a heads up on what’s going on.

Many blessings

Boaz and Rinah

Boaz & Rinah Dreyer

Moshav Be'er Milka

D.N. Halutza 85517

Israel

Tel: +972-54-7749323

Web: www.shefaisrael.com